Strangely, the paradox of having so much data in the world is that its almost impossible to make head or tail of what any of it means without using the interpretative tool of analysis, or to put it more simply narrative.
And quite what the narrative around coronavirus will look like once the dust has settled on the coronavirus crisis remains open to question, because right now different datasets are flying at us from all directions and no-one yet really knows which ones are meaningful.
Yes, cases are rising, and the virus is spreading. But how bad is that? The truth is we wont really know until its over. By then well know whether late March was just a warm-up for the main act, or actually close to the apex of the main event.
It would be nice to suppose the latter, and one analysis certainly does point that way.
Pantheon Macroeconomics, a boutique research house with offices in London, North America and Asia, released two notes on 22 23 March pointing out that the rate of growth of coronavirus cases appears to be slowing in Europe. Since Europe is commonly accepted to be the global flashpoint for the virus at the moment, this can only be good news, always assuming that we know how to read and interpret the data.
To be clear, the virus is still spreading, and the absolute number of cases is still increasing. But according to the interpretation placed on the European data by Pantheon, the rate of the spread is slowing.
Pantheon shows in graphic form how average daily case growth dropped markedly over the course of the weekend in Switzerland, the UK, Belgium, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, France and Italy.
“This is not definitive evidence of anything,” cautioned Pantheon. Nonetheless, it added, the data is “very striking.”
“We need to see a good deal more data before we can ne sure that the latest numbers are meaningful Read More – Source